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Unlikely. I'm not a huge fan of burning all the oil we find, but in reality, it seems to be available in a lot of places if you drill far enough. And that's before we count enhanced recovery techniques, oil shale/sands or gasification of coal.

There's oil for the future, not as cheap as before, but it'll be there.

But I still feel we need to find a way to stop burning fossil fuels. Just because we can doesn't mean it's the smart thing to do.

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I can see that writer of this article don't have a glue the facts of oil production in USA.
Next time when I see Peak Oil articles in this blog I hope they reflect more about reality
than this article.
Peak production was already USA in 1970 when oil companies pumped about 9,7 Million barrels a day. Today they pump about 50 % from those days and that figure is around 4,8 Million barrels a day. Readers can see the facts in following sites,
Energy Information Administration (www).tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/mcrfpus2a.htm and
Less scientific source
(www).lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

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Is this article talking about reserves (how much is in the ground), or the production rate? "Reserves" are mentioned, but the language is that normally used for production ("paek", "declines").

US oil production did indeed peak in 1970, as M. K. Hubbert predicted, to much derision, in a very famous 1956 presentation.

According to BP's stats, US oil "proved reserves" were 35.1 billion barrels in 1986, 29.8 in 1996, and 29.9 in 2006. Unless the US found a LOT of oil in 2007, then US reserves do indeed seem to have peaked.

And a quick check of the linked article says nothing about the US just passing a peak in reserves. Why was this posted in the first place???

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The greatest problem of the human race is it inability to understand exponential growth.
This is the best math lecture you will see this year. See the lecture by Dr. Albert A. Bartlett on Arithmetic, Population & Energy to get an understanding on how fast we are coming up on the end of cheap oil.

A full length version of the talk from 1994 is available here:
http://www.guba.com/watch/3000053112

A real media version of Dr. Bartlett's talk is here:
http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RAM/2004/08/AlbertBartlett20040829.ram

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There is more oil in Alaska. It is called ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge). But the Democrat's won't let anyone drill for it. Foreign oil imports are around 64%. Resposible development of ANWR is important.
Dad

PS I agree we need to reduce oil use, but we need to drill for more oil. I love to ride my bicycle, but sometimes I need to ride in a car.

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"There is more oil in Alaska. It is called ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge). But the Democrat's won't let anyone drill for it."

Hahaha... this just cracked me up. Gee, thanks for the heads up Dad. Them dang Democrat's not lettin' us REpublikuhns drill fer are ooil!

Dad, you did earn some points back for the bicycle statement, but come on now. Perhaps you should look into this "ANWR" issue a bit more before taking such a strong stance on it.

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Well, why don't you enlighten us all, Ryan?

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The ANWR probably will be drilled for oil eventually. I'd rather not do it at all, but if we do, we should wait until that oil is worth $300 a barrel, rather than let it go at the current cheap discount rate of less than $100 a barrel.

The current estimate is about 7.7 billion barrels of oil in ANWR. At the present world consumption rate, that's less than a 100 day supply. So, whoop-de-f*ing-do, if we drill up there, we can put off switching to an alternative fuel for a whole 100 days! That just solves all our problems, doesn't it! Many conservatives seem to think that's all it will take to make everything ok again.

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#1 is right. Oil is a stupid thing to burn. Why? Here is a partial list of some of the things that are made from oil:

Ammonia, Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf, Antiseptics, Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages, Beach Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking, Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains, Deodorants, Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses, Electrical Wiring Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fertilizer, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Coloring, Hair Curlers, Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant, Insecticides, Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume, Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol, Shampoo, Shaving Cream, Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes, Yarn and on and on…

What will our lives be like once we’ve burned up all the oil? What a waste…

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Tim:
Linoleum is made from Linseed Oil, not petroleum. You're thinking of vinyl flooring.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linoleum

Balloons (well, the normal kind) are made from latex, which comes from plants, not petroleum.

I admit I have difficulty even trying to figure out where you're going with your comment.

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I’m just saying that we need to “conserve” the oil for products instead of just burning it to make money. It's kind of like saving the rain forest in that who knows what's there for the future. Extinction is "almost" always a bad thing although I can think of some diseases which are exceptions to that rule.

Solar, wind and tidal will be there as long as the sun and moon are there. It will take time to make the transition to renewable power, but we must make the move by improving existing technologies and inventing new ones that will make better use of the resources we have. Of course biofuels are just solar collectors, but I am concerned with man playing God by creating new species for better solar collection without knowing the long-term consequences in a closed ecosystem.

There are those who say that they are getting close to “cold fusion” or even some kind a of “zero-point” energy pump. I say “that’s great, now prove it”.

These “inventors” will first have to get past the entrenched “flat-earthers” who much like children are afraid of what’s behind their closet door or what may be hiding under their bed at night. Perhaps they are just suffering from some kind of Agoraphobia. Maybe they have just forgotten how brave men and women have often make dreams come true by ignoring "science".

Although our lives have been changed greatly by the inventions of dreamers, some things like human nature will never change. That’s OK, we need the followers too.

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We aren't going to ever, EVER use up all the oil that the planet has to offer. EVER. When it becomes economically infeasible to continue to drill and pump crude oil then we will move towards a new fuel source. So it has been since the beginning of time, so it will be forever and ever.

When the English began to run out of charcoal with which to heat their homes, forge their wares and keep the wheels of industry moving they began to burn coal. They never ran out of wood, they just found a more cost effective solution since as demand surged charcoal became far too expensive. They have mostly moved away from coal for more ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE solutions like Nuclear, Natural Gas, etc. etc. etc. They aren't out of coal either.

You pessimists who talk about "using it all up" (I'm looking at you Tim) are so caught up on the hype of Gore-bal Warming that you don't even know what you are talking about anymore.

We live in exciting times where oil has become so pricey that new sources of energy are on the horizon, because they are on their way to being more cost effective, and in the global economy THAT is the only thing that will drive change, not a Kyoto protocol or a G8 climate resolution.

The only thing that will ever change the way we produce energy is the value of that change.

One last time, we will NEVER run out of oil, not EVER.

It will be the rise of cheaper alternatives that do away with the oil we use.

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smithers- Personally, I think that this man made global warming hoax is total BS and is only designed to convince the weak minded liberals to give up our national sovereignty and personal rights & freedoms to some all powerful global government made up of the rich, the powerful and their 2-faced hypocritical political cronies like Mr. Gore, Ms. Clinton and Mr. Bush. These people are all too happy to tear up the US Constitution, betray those stupid enough to vote for them and bow down to their money masters for scraps of power.

Any moron knows that Alaska was once a tropical jungle and will be so again no matter how much wealth we transfer to the giant corporations as “carbon offsets” or “public investments”.

The real fact is that global thermal cycles are caused by the cycles of our primary power source… THE SUN! Mr. Gore’s chart clearly shows that Co2 levels rise hundreds of years AFTER temperatures raise. These “scientists” are just feathering their own nests with research dollars. If they did not skew the data to show man is causing “global warming” then they would lose their jobs. It’s that simple!

However… waste not, want not and I'm tired of being kicked around by a 12th century people who wear diapers on their heads and treat their women like animals to appease some “God” who tells them to cut off the heads of their enemies or stone their women to death for not dressing properly because their men will lose all control of themselves at the sight of a woman’s ankle.

The relevant verse of the Qur'an says:

"O Prophet, tell your wives and daughters and the women of the believers to draw upon them their over-garments.

That is more appropriate so that they may be recognized and not molested" (33:59)

These people are insane.

All I want to collect and use my own damn energy, than you very much and electrons are the only power that I can gather for myself.

By the way, anyone who uses the words “never” and “always” is just plain short sighted.

Change is inevitable! Deal with it.

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I just think it's funny that Tim was accused of being a thin-minded global warming rube.

To smithers I would say... I think you're taking the phrase "out of oil" a little too literally. If I pour my morning bowl of cereal and discover that I only have 8 drops of milk left, I will say "I'm out of milk". When we reach the point that, despite all our efforts, we can only extract oil from the ground at (let's say) 10% of the rate we do today, I'll say we're out of oil. Won't you?

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I also find it ironic that the concept of "peak oil" get somehow get linked to political jargons like liberalize and freedom to choose to drive...

There are a lot more facts and details that this comment section will never cover, but the bottomline is that drilling for more oil will do little to slow down the rise in crude prices.

If there is no drastic change in either the supply or demand side of oil, energy costs will keep on creeping upward, and in some cases, as we have seen this year, there will also be periodic shortages. I think it's silly to get all tied up on rhetorics or politics mind games. Conservation is DEFINITELY one leg of the solution, but it seems that $100/barrel is not enough to get the public to participate in the effort.

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Tim in post 11 said: 'Maybe they have just forgotten how brave men and women have often make dreams come true by ignoring science."

Only in works of fiction. For any device in the real world, science has always been essential. The development of our AC electrical grid was done by Tesla and other engineers that understood the science of electrodynamics and the science of harmonic resonance. Aeroplanes were developed by the Wright Bros. and other engineers that understood the science of fluid dynamics, thermodynamics, and the science of structural engineering. Transistors and integrated circuits were developed by engineers that understood quantum physics and chemistry. Heck, even Kentucky Fried Chicken was developed by a guy understanding simple thermodynamics (pressure frying!) and basic culinary science.

My challenge to Tim is to name one real "dream come true" device that was developed by anyone "ignoring science".

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LMAO.

Look what they're saying about you numbnuts over on the PO board.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic34333.html

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Chris M - That's an easy challenge for one with open ears and an open mind as EVERY achievement was once previously thought impossible by "scientists".

You can add these to the above list, most of which were impossible without oil:

and Medicine, flight, electricity, computers, aluminum, synthetic ANYTHING, cloning, robots, gene sequencing, and so on and on.

Hell, Chris even man made fire was once thought "impossible" and the only way to have fire was to wait for a lightening strike!

Need is a void that only knowledge can fill. Knowledge requires experimentation, hard work, faith, courage (from critics like you), refusal to quit and often just dumb luck. Today’s fantasies are often tomorrow’s commonplace. Man traveling under the sea for months at a time? Only in a pure hogwash fiction story!

We don’t even have a unified “theory” yet and NOBODY knows exactly what gravity REALLY is and how it works, we only know what it DOES. Thank goodness that scientific knowledge is NOT stagnant and some DARE to dream! Yes, that takes the most courage of all.

All truth passes through three stages:
First, it is ridiculed; (by you)
Second, it is violently opposed; (by you) and
Third, it is accepted as self-evident (maybe by you)

-- Arthur Schopenhauer (1788-1860)

"When you're one step ahead of the crowd you're a genius.
When you're two steps ahead, you're a crackpot."

Rabbi Shlomo Riskin, (Feb. 1998)

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As one of the people on www.peakoil.com, I do find this discussion interesting because it really let's us know just how little people outside our little area of intellectual thought know about peak oil. Comments like... ohh, how about this one

"When it becomes economically infeasible to continue to drill and pump crude oil then we will move towards a new fuel source. So it has been since the beginning of time, so it will be forever and ever."

They tend to make us laugh quite a bit.

This was another favorite.

"There is more oil in Alaska. It is called ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge). But the Democrat's won't let anyone drill for it. Foreign oil imports are around 64%. Resposible development of ANWR is important."

Guys, I could spend 10 minutes typing out a long post about peakoil, but it would be far easier for you to visit our site. To try and say what I want in as small a space as possible, unless your telling me that oil is a renewable resourece, eventually if you keep using it yes you will run out. Because you don't get more. That's what non renewable means. The important point however is not when you run out. In a sense your correct there's a point where it isn't worth it to keep drilling for oil. Not that we switch to some new power source that's better, because honestly, there isn't one. But we'll stop drilling because at a certain point it will take more oil to get the remaining oil out of the ground than you'll get back.

At the point we stop drilling for it, effectively, we have run out. Oil that's sitting in the ground and will never be drilled really doesn't count as a reserve does it?

I hope you guys do visit the site. We always welcome people to learn more about it, and do take the time to read old posts. You might just learn something.

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Tim said:
"Need is a void that only knowledge can fill. Knowledge requires experimentation, hard work, faith, courage (from critics like you), refusal to quit and often just dumb luck."

I don't think anyone would disagree with the above statement, but isn't it science that is the mechanism of obtaining knowledge to fill the void? I think in most cases it is not scientists that have laughed at new technological developments, but the perpetually anti-intellectual populous.

And while we're at it, which of Arthur Schopenhauer's three stages would best categorize your reaction towards the "crackpot theory" of anthropogenic global warming?

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